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Speech by Alain Berset, Secretary General of the Council of Europe

Ambassador Viinikka,
Director General Suurpää,
Members of the Committee for the Future,
Hyvät ystävät, hyvät kuulijat,

It is a pleasure to join you at the Parliament of Finland to discuss foresight and democracy.

Here, foresight is much more than a tool.

It is a systematic way of analysing risks, testing assumptions, and bringing long-term thinking into the heart of public decision-making.

This experience is unique in Europe.

And we have much to learn from it.

But first, let me say a few words about Ukraine.

In recent days, we have seen a flurry of high-stakes peace negotiations.

So far, we are left with uncertainties and expectations.

But the position of the Council of Europe is clear.

It always has been. 

Ukraine is and will remain our number one priority.

Since day one of the full-scale aggression, we have focused on the areas where we make the greatest difference.

As peace efforts intensify, we stand ready to contribute to a just and lasting peace.

While the Council of Europe is not at the negotiating table, our work is central — from elections and reparations to minority rights, humanitarian issues, the EU path, and constitutional reform.

We are invested in Ukraine’s long-term recovery.

Our work centres on democratic reconstruction and on accountability.

What is at stake is the right for Ukrainians to shape their own future.

And that brings me to our topic today: foresight, democracy, and the future of Europe. 

My first observation is that sometimes foresight is hiding in plain sight.

We do not always need sophisticated models to anticipate risks.

Take the initial 28-point peace plan for Ukraine that was leaked in the press.

It asked Russia to promise not to “invade neighbouring countries.”

We have been there before.

Russia made a similar promise twice already.

In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.

And again in the 2014–2015 Minsk agreements.

When a promise has been broken before, can we afford to rely on it again?

What does it say about us?

And if our democracies fail to plan for that scenario, what will be the price to pay later?

Foresight begins with a sober reading of the evidence.

And with the responsibility to learn from it.

I believe that our first responsibility is to see the world in all its complexity.

For this, let me take you to a lecture by Einstein at the University of Oxford in 1933.

It happened at a time of growing political unrest in Germany.

A moment when Europe misread the signs and overlooked complexity.

Einstein did not speak about politics or democracy.

He presented a new way of thinking about how science works.

His line has become timeless, and I quote:

“Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler.”

End of quote.

This is an important lesson for foresight.

And if you take one thing from my remarks today, let it be this:

Be wary of simplistic solutions.

Especially when more and more voices seem to be saying:

“Democracy is too slow.”

“Things are too complicated.”

“Maybe it’s time for someone to take control.”

These messages can be appealing.

They are simple on the surface.

But they hide deeper dangers.

I will give you one example.

Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has shaken the order in place since the Second World War.

The United States has also signalled a more limited role in European security.

This combination — a more dangerous Russia and a less engaged America — has pushed European countries toward rapid rearmament.

Imagine a graph with two lines moving in opposite directions.

One line, showing military spending, keeps going up.

The other line, showing trust in democratic institutions, goes down.

As one rises, the other falls.

And yet, we often overlook how powerful Europe becomes when it stands as one — as a community of values and economies.

Behind this, a simpler narrative has emerged.

The idea that military strength on its own will keep us safe.

Foresight requires us to look beyond that.

It forces us to ask deeper questions.

What will happen in five or ten years if an extremist government controls a heavily armed state?

And what does it mean for Europe when strategic decisions are shaped more by fear than by reflection?

Europe’s rearmament is necessary.

And Finland knows that better than anyone else.

Military security is essential.

But so is democratic security.

True foresight means defending democracy today without compromising the Europe we want to live in tomorrow.

It requires the honesty to think in complexity.

And the discipline to act with clarity.

That is precisely the spirit of the New Democratic Pact for Europe, which brings us together here today.

The pact is a collective effort, led by the Council of Europe, to address the pressures that weaken our democracies, from disinformation to corruption and extremism.

It starts with a simple question:

How should democracy adapt to new technologies and new geopolitical realities?

And it rests on three priorities:

Education — to strengthen democratic culture.

Protection — to support democracy wherever it is under strain.

And innovation — to help our institutions keep pace with fast-moving, cross-border threats.

The strategic consultation phase has begun.

Contributions are coming from governments and parliaments, from experts, civil society, cities, and young people across Europe.

They point to the same challenges.

Protecting critical thinking from foreign information manipulation and interference.

Managing the risks and opportunities of AI.

And rebuilding trust through stronger accountability and social cohesion.

The next phase will turn these insights into action — into concrete policies and new democratic practices.

And this is why today’s roundtable is important.

I want to thank the Finnish government for hosting us — and for sharing its long experience in participatory foresight.

This is a country that has invested for decades in ensuring today’s decisions stand up to tomorrow’s challenges.

By bringing science, technology, and society into one conversation.

And by helping lawmakers look beyond the electoral cycle and to govern with foresight, not hindsight.

In Moominpappa at Sea, Moominpappa and his family move to a small island with an old lighthouse.

I know how important lighthouses are to Finns.

They are important to us as well.

That is why we chose the lighthouse as the symbol of the New Democratic Pact for Europe.

Tove Jansson’s beloved children’s book is a story about searching, learning, and finding meaning in uncertainty.

And in this way, it brings us close to Einstein’s reminder that simplicity is necessary, but never at the expense of reality.

In this time of militarisation, democratic backsliding, disinformation, economic uncertainty, and shifting geopolitics, we must resist easy answers — and face complexity head-on.

If we do that, the New Democratic Pact for Europe will not just respond to the challenges we face.

It will help Europe shape the future it chooses.
Kiitos. Thank you.