Demographic Year Book 2003
Introduction
Introduction: the demographic situation in Europe
Overview
The Council of Europe now covers practically the whole of geographical Europe, as well as the Asian parts of Turkey and certain republics of the former Soviet Union: Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan. It was established in 1949 with ten founding members (Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, United Kingdom and Sweden) and the largest expansion occurred after the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989 and the break-up of the Soviet Union. In early 1993 there were 26 member countries, compared with 45 in 2003. This year Serbia and Montenegro became a member.
The history of the Council of Europe reflects the efforts of European states to accelerate the European integration process in a spirit of partnership and solidarity.
This report covers all 45 member states of the Council of Europe and one non-member (Belarus). These countries are a heterogeneous group from the standpoint of economic, social and cultural wealth, as well as the quality of their demographic data, definitions of statistical units and variables, and the methods used to calculate indicators and collect data. This makes comparison across countries difficult. Since 2000 the European Demographic Observatory (EDO) has applied an original and effective methodology to improve the international comparability of the data in this report (for more details see the Explanatory note). Thanks to collaboration between the Council of Europe and the EDO, the current report provides a wide range of harmonised demographic indicators. The analysis of the demographic situation in 2003 only includes data for countries that have supplied figures or have revised their estimates and their demographic indicators to take account of census results.
There is no universally accepted demographic subdivision of Europe, so when such terms as northern, southern, eastern, western or central Europe are used in this report, they refer to a geographical location rather than any standard grouping of countries. To permit graphical comparisons of trends in the various demographic indicators over time, the 46 countries under review are further grouped into 12 smaller regions: western Europe (3 regions), northern Europe (2 regions), southern Europe (2 regions), central Europe (3 regions), eastern Europe (1 region) and the Caucasus region (1 region).
Population and population change
At the beginning of 2003 the total population of the Council of Europe’s member states was about 803.5 million, an increase of just 627 900 (0.08%) over 2002. The 10.7 million inhabitants of Serbia and Montenegro, which became a member this year, are included in both totals. Taking Belarus' nearly 10 million inhabitants into account the total population of Europe is estimated at 813.5 in early 2003, a slight increase (0.08%) over 2002.
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European countries vary according to geographical size and population. The smallest in population is San Marino, with 28 200 inhabitants, compared with 143 million in the Russian Federation (see Graph G1.1). A majority of member states (24) have fewer than 8 million inhabitants: seven have fewer than 1 million (San Marino, Liechtenstein, Andorra, Iceland, Malta, Luxembourg, and Cyprus) and thirteen between 1 and 5 million. Ten member states have populations of between 8 and 20 million and four between 20 and 50 million: Romania (22m), Poland (38m), Spain (40m) and Ukraine (49m). Over half the population of the Council of Europe (59%) is concentrated in just six countries with over 50 million inhabitants: Italy (56.3m), France (59.6m), United Kingdom (59m), Turkey (69.6m), Germany (82.5m) and the Russian Federation (144m). The last-named alone accounts for 18%, or nearly a fifth, of the population of the Council of Europe.
Population density, which is a function of countries' land area as well as their population, also varies from one state to another. In 2003 the greatest density was in Malta (1 257 inhabitants per km2), followed by Netherlands (479), San Marino (471) and Belgium (339). Of the countries with over 50 millions inhabitants, the United Kingdom (246) and Germany (231) have high densities. At the other extreme, in northern Europe Iceland (just 3 inhabitants per km2), the Russian Federation (8), Norway (14) and Finland (15) are characterised by very low densities.
The annual rate of population growth, a combination of the natural growth rate (difference between births and deaths per 100 population) and net migration (difference between arrivals and departures per 100 population) was negative in thirteen countries in 2002. Population mainly fell in countries in transition: Georgia (-0.66%), Latvia (-0.61%), Russian Federation (-0.6%), Bulgaria (-0.59%), Belarus (-0.53%), Estonia (-0.38%), Lithuania (-0.38%), Hungary (-0.32%), Romania (-0.28%), Moldova (-0.26%), Croatia (-0.04%), Poland (-0.05%) and Czech Republic (-0.03%). Although this declining trend became more marked in Bulgaria, Hungary, Lithuania, Moldova, Romania, Belarus, the rate of decline fell in the Czech Republic and, above all, Latvia. Only four countries had growth rates above 1.0%: San Marino (2.1%) followed by Andorra (1.2%), Cyprus (1.2%) and Liechtenstein (1.0%).
Generally speaking, natural growth (the excess of births over deaths) is declining in Europe, and in more and more cases is negative or only marginally positive (see graph G1.2 (a, b)). In 1990, three countries - Germany, Bulgaria and Hungary – had negative natural growth for the first time. By 2002, it was negative in fifteen countries: Germany (-0.15%) and the countries in transition: Russian Federation (-0.65%), Bulgaria (-0.59%), Belarus (-0.58%), Latvia (-0.53%), Estonia (-0.39%), Hungary (-0.35%), Lithuania (-0.32%), Romania (-0.27%), Croatia (-0.24%), Moldova (-0.17%), Czech Republic (-0.15%), Slovenia (-0.06%), Poland and Slovak Republic (-0.01%). The natural growth rate started to decline in these countries in 1990, or even in 1985 in the case of Hungary. In the rest of Europe, in Andorra, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Finland, France and United Kingdom, the rate is positive. Only in Turkey is the growth rate relatively high (+1.43%), though even here it is falling slowly but steadily.
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Most of the countries in transition have been characterised by a negative rate of net migration since 1990. In 2002 this was the case in eight countries: Azerbaijan (-0.04%), Georgia (-0.67%), Latvia (-0.08%), Lithuania (-0.06), Moldova (-0.09%), Poland (-0.03%), Romania (-0.07%), and Turkey (-0.65%). In the other countries in transition (Russian Federation, Hungary, Czech Republic, Croatia, Belarus, Slovenia, Estonia and Slovak Republic), the rate of net migration is slightly positive. However net immigration is not sufficient to compensate for negative natural growth, except in Slovenia, which in this respect resembles Germany, the only western European country with negative natural growth over a long period.
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The countries with the highest rates of positive net migration are in the western and southern parts of Europe: San Marino (+1.73%); Cyprus (+0.79%), Malta (+0.41%), Portugal (+0.67%), Andorra (+0.44%), Belgium (+0.4%), Luxembourg (+0.59%), Switzerland (+0.63%) and Liechtenstein (+0.47%). A number of countries have experienced positive natural growth and net immigration: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Sweden, Switzerland and United Kingdom.
Of the older countries of immigration, France (+0.11%) had the lowest and Norway (+0.38%) the highest rates of positive net migration in 2002, the others being Austria (+0.32%), Denmark (+0.18%), Germany (+ 0.27%), Netherlands (+0.17%) and Sweden (+0.35%). Since 1990, this group of countries has been joined by Italy and Greece, formerly countries of emigration, but now comparable to Germany and France.
Family formation and dissolution
Family structure has undergone major changes in recent years in every country of Europe: nuptiality trends are characterised by a declining number of marriages, and an increase in divorce and consensual unions.
The crude marriage rate (marriages per thousand inhabitants) rose slightly in the majority of European countries, though in others it fell or remained stable. In 2002 the vast majority of countries had marriage rates between 4 and 6 per thousand. Cyprus remained on top with the very high rate of 13.5 per thousand1[1]. The lowest rates were in Andorra and Armenia (2.8 and 2.9‰ respectively).
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Another useful indicator for studying family formation is the total first marriage rate for women (see Graphs G2.2 (continued)). The marriage rate for never-married women, which was around 0.5 in 2001 in most European countries, rose in 2002 in 23 countries and only fell in eight. Apart from Cyprus, where the indicator was at its highest (1.54), the 0.7 level was only exceeded in Denmark, followed by Croatia (0.69), Belarus (0.68), Portugal and Romania (0.66 each), Finland (0.64) and Switzerland (0.65). Estonia had the lowest rate in 2002 (0.42).
The declining marriage rate is accompanied by an increase in age at first marriage (see Graphs G2.3 (continued)). In all the countries in transition, the average age of women at first marriage, which had been relatively young, started to rise in the 1990s. In this group of countries in 2002, women generally got married between the ages of 23 and 26, which is still earlier than in western and, in particular, northern countries. Sweden is the only country where the average age of women at first marriage is over 30 (30.1). It is also high in Denmark (29.6), Liechtenstein (29), Norway (28.6), Finland (28.5) San Marino (28.4), Switzerland and the Netherlands (28.2).
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The total divorce rate is rising in many countries, though it still varies widely. The highest rates were recorded in Sweden (0.55), Belgium (0.54), Luxembourg (0.51), Finland (0.50) and Belarus (0.5 in 2001) and the lowest (between 0.09 and 0.17) in southern Europe (including the Balkans), Poland (0.18) and the Caucasus region (in Armenia the rate was 0.06, and Azerbaijan 0.11). The greatest changes have been in Portugal, where the total divorce rate was 0.17 in 1995, but had risen to 0.39 in 2002, comparable with the Netherlands.
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Fertility
The total (period) fertility rate (TFR), which measures the average number of births per woman based on the fertility levels of a particular calendar year, is perhaps the most noteworthy aspect of European demography. Although it is very low, there were still substantial geographical variations in 2002 (see graphs G3.3 (continued)).
Turkey has the highest level of fertility in Europe: 2.52 children per woman in 2001. It is the only country in Europe where generation replacement is guaranteed because the rate is above 2.1. Certain other countries, such as Albania (2.1 in 1999) and Ireland (2.00 in 2002), are close to the replacement level. In general, the highest total fertility rates occur in northern Europe, with levels of between 1.5 and 2 children per woman. The highest is Norway (1.75), followed by Denmark (1.72), Finland (1.72) and Sweden (1.65). In the last named, the TFR rose by 0.08 in a single year, from 1.57 in 2001. It was the only European country to record such an increase.
Of the western countries, France (1.89) has the highest annual indicator and Germany (1.31) the lowest. In southern and central Europe however the rates are between 1.2 and 1.5 children per woman. The lowest fertility rate occurs in the Caucasus region, in Armenia (1.02 in 2001), which is followed by Ukraine (1.10), Czech Republic (1.17), Slovak Republic (1.19), and Moldova and Slovenia (1.21 each).
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The other main measure of fertility, completed fertility, measures the average number of children born to women over the course of their lives. The data in this report relate to generations of women born from 1930 to 1970. Completed fertility declines markedly in the most recent generations. There are only eight European countries where fertility among the generations born after 1965 is at the replacement level: Albania (2.39 - generation born in 1967), Armenia (2.11 - generation born in 1966), Cyprus (2.44 - generation born in 1967), Iceland (2.33 - generation born in 1966), Ireland (2.19 - generation born in 1965), Serbia and Montenegro (2.13 - generation born in 1966). Completed fertility in northern Europe and in the United Kingdom and France is not far below the replacement level. For the generation born in 1970, the replacement level is only reached in Azerbaijan (2.11), "the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" (2.10), and Turkey (despite the absence of data on the youngest generations) (see graphs G3.7 (continued)). It should be noted though that the generations born after 1965 had not completed their fertility period on 1 January 2003.
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The proportion of births outside marriage has risen in practically all European countries, but at differing rates (see graphs G3.1 (continued)). In some it has reached unprecedented levels. In Iceland (63.3% in 2001), Estonia (56.3%), Sweden (56%) and Norway (50.3%) more than 50% of live births concerned children born outside of marriage. In most European countries the relevant figure in 2002 was between 25% and 50% of all live births. However in southern Europe (Italy, Greece), the Balkans (Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and "the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia") and Azerbaijan, births outside marriage were fairly rare: around 10% of live births. Cyprus has recorded the lowest percentage in Europe for many years: just 3.5%.
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The average age of women at birth is increasing in every country, showing that European women are having children later and later. In Sweden, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Liechtenstein and San Marino the average age in 2002 was over 30 years. Based on the latest data available, Spain and Ireland are also part of the group of countries where the mean age at maternity is over 30. In the other countries of Europe it is between 27 and 30, with the exception of Turkey and Azerbaijan. These are the only two to record a fall in the mean age of maternity.
Mortality
Mortality in Europe is much lower than in previous centuries. In the first half of the twentieth century the decline was mainly the result of decreasing mortality risks among infants and middle-aged adults. In recent decades, however, in most European countries mortality has been decreasing fastest among the elderly and life expectancy has risen considerably.
The three main mortality indicators in this report are the crude death rate, life expectancy and the infant mortality rate.
Like all crude indicators, the crude death rate takes no account of a population's age structure. A high proportion of elderly persons means a higher death rate, as is the case in the northern, western and southern countries, where the age structure is consistent with higher mortality. The 2002 rate in these countries was slightly above 10 per thousand. In other countries, such as Andorra, Azerbaijan and Turkey, mortality levels are low. The highest rate is recorded in the Russian Federation (16.2 per thousand).
However the best indicator of mortality is life expectancy. This is the main indicator for measuring differences in mortality between the sexes and at certain ages: birth, 1 year, 15, 45 and 65. Since there is a correlation between longevity and economic and social development, life expectancy is used as an indicator of a country's level of development.
In maps 10 and 11 the division between eastern and western Europe clearly emerges. As a rule, people live longer in northern, western and southern Europe. Iceland records the highest life expectancy at birth among men (78 in 2000), followed by San Marino (77.8 in 2001), Switzerland (77.8 in 2002) and Sweden (77.7 in 2002). In the other western countries the figures are between 75 and 77. In contrast the lowest European figures for male life expectancy at birth are in the Russian Federation (just 59 years), Belarus (62.3) and Ukraine (62.4).
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Women's life expectancy is greater than that of men and in nearly half the European countries is above 80. This is particularly the case in western Europe, though also in Slovenia, the only country in transition in this group. San Marino has the highest female life expectancy at birth in Europe (84.2), followed by Switzerland (83), France and Italy (82.9 each). The lowest figures are recorded in the countries of eastern Europe: Turkey (70.9), Moldova (71.9) and the Russian Federation (71.9). The last named country has the greatest difference between male and female life expectancies: more than 13 years. In the Baltic countries, Ukraine and Belarus the difference is more than 11 years.
The geography of infant mortality reveals the same east-west division in Europe (map 12). Although infant mortality has declined considerably the rates still range from 2.7 per thousand in Iceland to 39.4 in Turkey. Aside from these two extremes, in most western European countries the rate is below 5 per thousand, while in the east and the majority of central European countries it is between 5 and 10 per thousand. However the number of deaths of children aged under one year per thousand live births is still high in Romania (17.2) and Moldova (14.7). These figures are even above those in eastern Europe (Russian Federation, Ukraine and Belarus) and the Caucasus region (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia).
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Ageing of the population
A combination of declining fertility and increasing life expectancy is raising the proportion of elderly persons (aged over 65) in the population, the so-called ageing phenomenon. Age pyramids are tending to narrow at the base, reflecting the reduced size of the younger generations due to continuing low fertility, and broaden near the peak, as people live longer.
The European population structure (see Figure 1) reveals the growing size of the groups aged 15 to 65 and the decline in the younger generations aged under 15. The Second World War had a significant impact, resulting today in fewer elderly men and persons of either sex in their early sixties. More generally, Europe's population structure is already influenced by the ageing phenomenon, though in 2002 the elderly population, at about 14% of the total, was still below that aged under 15 (16.8%). Practically all of Europe is affected by ageing, though at differing rates from one country to another. The highest proportions of elderly persons in 2002 were in Italy (18.2%), Germany (17.5%), Greece (17.3%), Sweden (17.2%) and Spain (17.1%). In these countries there were more elderly persons than young persons aged under 15, as was also the case in Bulgaria, San Marino and Portugal. In a very small number of countries, including Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Moldova, elderly persons made up less than 10% of the total population. In the majority of European countries the figures were between 12 and 17% (see graph G1.4).
In 2002, the dependency ratio, which measures the relationship between the number of elderly and young persons and the number of persons of active age, was highest in Albania: 60.7 dependents (young and elderly combined) per 100 persons of active age. The lowest rate was in Andorra (39.7%), where persons of active age make up 71.6% of the total population.
