Demographic Year Book 2003
Executive Summary
Every year the Council of Europe’s European Population Committee reviews the demographic situation among its member states, evaluates the economic and social implications of current demographic changes and highlights some of the specific features of Europe's demographic evolution. The report Recent Demographic Developments in Europe is a Europe-wide review of demographic change. It contains an introduction, a methodological note, an overview of different demographic indicators summarised in comparative tables and a CD-Rom. The CD-Rom presents national reports, demographic indicators and population pyramids comparing each country’s age structure with the European average.
Past and future demographic trends are of particular interest to policymakers, researchers, planners and analysts. There is an increasing demand for indicators of population characteristics both at national and international level, for example, in decisions about where to build schools, universities and hospitals. Knowledge of the current and future population and its breakdown by age, sex and region, is therefore of great importance.
At the beginning of 2003 Europe's population was about 814 million, of whom 803.5 million were in Council of Europe member states. The European population’s share of the world population is currently declining owing to low fertility levels, and this decline is expected to continue in the years to come.
Fertility, mortality and international migration are the components of population growth. Thus, changes in these variables determine the future size of the population and influence its age and sex composition. All the member states have already passed through various phases of the demographic transition towards fertility levels below replacement level and low mortality rates.
In some European countries, particularly those in so-called economic transition, these demographic changes have brought about zero population growth. In many west European countries negative natural population growth caused by an excess of deaths over births is only offset by immigration.
In all European countries, except Turkey, the total fertility rate is currently below replacement level. There is also a growing tendency to delay pregnancy with a subsequent decrease in families with three or more children, while first and second births are becoming a higher proportion of the total.
The main features of nuptiality are the declining number of marriages, the rise in the number of separations and the appearance of other forms of union, particularly cohabitation. There has also been a widespread parallel increase in the number of births outside marriage. In certain countries, such as Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Estonia and the former German Democratic Republic, such births represent more than 50% of the total.
The decline in mortality has been remarkable during the last decades. Mortality has been decreasing fastest among the elderly in most European countries, where life expectancy has risen considerably. In general, in northern, western and southern Europe people are living longer. Infant mortality is declining in all European countries. It is around 5 per thousand in western Europe, but higher in the East. In particular, Romania, Moldova, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Belarus and the Caucasus region have rates of between 10 and 20 per thousand.
Europe is confronted with the problem of ageing populations more than other regions of the world. The current demographic revolution is predicted to continue in the coming years and the share of older persons in the total population is expected to increase, something society will have to adapt to. Active ageing, or a society for all ages, is a major theme among policymakers today, covering such issues as work and retirement, savings and wealth, family structure and intergenerational transfers, health, disability and well being. The debate is likely to intensify in the near future as the effects of ageing become more pronounced.
The national reports, which can be viewed in the accompanying CD-Rom, show that the resident foreign population is growing in many countries. A shift in migration patterns is also revealed. Countries such as Italy, Portugal and Ireland that traditionally had negative net migration have now experienced a positive balance for the last ten years or so. However, it should be noted that migratory flows are very difficult to measure because data is often compiled differently: in some countries information is derived from population registers, in others it comes from surveys and censuses. The way data are compiled naturally affects their reliability. Further difficulties stem from international legislation, particularly the free movement of citizens between the member countries of the European Union.
The relationship between population trends and human welfare has been the subject of several studies and debates. The links between demography and economic and social aspects of life are well known, as are those between social policy and population changes. Society is constantly changing and new questions concerning welfare and population issues are constantly being raised. Harmonised demographic indicators are an essential tool for analysing and answering these questions. Hence the importance of bringing these indicators to the attention of policy makers and academics.
The Council of Europe's report on "Recent demographic developments in Europe" covers all its 45 member states and Belarus. The report consists of a printed version with an introduction, an executive summary and a Europe-wide comparative review. The introduction provides a general assessment of the demographic trends in Europe. The comparative part presents the main demographic indicators in all the forty-six countries included in this volume: population (size and growth), net migration, marriage, divorce, fertility, mortality and foreign population. This CD-Rom contains country-specific data including a brief description of the developments in each country, pyramids describing the age structure of the population and detailed time-series data tables for each demographic indicator.
For more information on the population activities of the Council of Europe, please visit our website: http://www.coe.int/population
Please send us your feedback on broken links, incorrect data or general comments to the following email address: adrian.evtuhovici@coe.int
