Demographic Year Book 2003

Ireland

Population

A Census of Population was held in Ireland in April 2002 which recorded 3 917 203 persons compared with 3 626 087 in April 1996, representing an increase of 291 116 persons. The natural increase (excess of births over deaths) in this period was 137 235, leaving net migration in the period equal to 153,881^[1].

The young dependency ratio (31.2 %), though declining, remains quite high by European standards. It stood at 52 % twenty years earlier.

Marriage and divorce

The number of marriages declined from a peak of 21 800 in 1980 to 15 600 in 1995. Recent years have witnessed an upward movement to 20 000 in 2002. There are no statistics on divorce in Ireland.

Fertility

The number of births registered in 2002 was 60 500, an increase of 2 600 on the 2001 figure. The total number of births declined from a peak of 74 400 in 1980 to a low of 47 900 in 1994. The birth rate was 15.4 ‰ in 2002 compared with 21.9 ‰ in 1980. Over 30 % of births were outside marriage in 2002 compared with 5 % in 1980. The figure has been steadily increasing in recent years.

Over 40 % of the births in 2002 were first order births compared with 20 % in 1960. By way of contrast, fourth and higher order births, which accounted for nearly 45 % of the 1960 births, only accounted for 11 % of the 2002 births.

The total fertility rate has steadily declined in Ireland since the mid-sixties. In 1964 the rate was 4.06, in 1981 it was 3.07 and in 1989 it was 2.08. The total fertility rate continued to fall to 1.85 in 1994 and 1995 but since then has increased to 1.98 in 2002.

Mortality

There were 29 300 deaths registered in 2002 giving a crude rate of 7.5 ‰, lower than in most European countries because of the young age profile of the Irish population. This represents a decrease of 500 on the 2001 figure and was largely due to the drop in deaths during the first quarter of 2002.

Migration

The 2002 Census of Population recorded 76 104 people who were usually resident in the country on census night and whose usual residence one year previously was outside the state. The United Kingdom was the country of origin for about one-third, while 13 % came from other EU countries. Other European countries accounted for about 11 %, the USA for 8 % while approximately one third originated from countries outside Europe and the USA.

Government decisions and developments in legislation

Following an amendment to the Constitution which was approved in a Referendum taken on 24 November 1995, the “Family Law (Divorce) Act, 1996” passed into law in 1996. To date no provision has been made for the collection of divorce statistics in Ireland.

Demographic projections

The most recent set of population projections uses the 1996 Census of Population as a benchmark and covers the period to 2031. Six scenarios are presented corresponding to three fertility and two migration variants. The high scenario (M1F1) assumes a continuation of the net inward migration experienced over recent years, though at a declining rate, coupled with a total fertility rate of 2.0 being maintained over the projection period. The low variant (M2F3) would see net immigration eventually revert to net emigration coupled with the total fertility rate falling to 1.5 by 2011 and being maintained at that level for the remainder of the projection period.

The population is projected to increase under all scenarios reaching 4 800 000 under M1F1 and 4 000 000 under M2F3. The old population (i.e. those aged 65 years and over) is projected to double between 1996 and 2031 under all combinations of assumptions chosen. The relevant population will be 840 000 under M2 and 859 000 under M1. The very old population (i.e. those aged 80 years and over) is projected to increase from its 1996 level of 90 000 to over 200 000 in 2031.

  [1] Using the detailed results from the 2002 Census of Population, the population estimates for inter-censal years (1997-2001), along with migration data, are now being revised.   It is planned to publish the revised population estimates, along with revised migration data, by the end of 2003.
Download the country tables here (archived, in zip format). Each national report includes the following tables (if available):

Table 1: Population by sex and age

Table 2: Births, deaths and legal abortions

Table 3: Sum, by five-year age group, of age-specific fertility rates (age in completed years), total fertility rate and mean age of women at childbirth

Table 4: Sum, by five-year age group, of female first marriage rates (age in completed years), total female first marriage rate and mean age at female first marriage. Total divorce rate

Table 5: Live births by order

Table 6: International migration

Table 7: Population of foreign citizenship

Table 8: Population change, natural increase and net migration

Table 9: Longitudinal data on fertility and female first marriage

Table 10: Life expectancy at certain ages