Demographic Year Book 2003

Turkey

Population

According to the last population census, the population of Turkey was 67.8 million in 2000 with an annual growth rate of 1.83 % for the period 1990-2000. The population reached a maximum growth rate of 2.8 % per year during the 1950s with a rapid decline appearing after 1970. The population growth rate will decrease slightly in the future according to population projections. The Turkish population was around 69.6 million in mid-2002, based on the national population estimations. The male population and female population was estimated at respectively 34.5 million and 35.1 million in mid-2002.

The age structure of the population is rather young. In 2002 the proportion of children (0-14) was 29.6 % and 5.5 % of the population was 65 years or older.

Marriage and divorce

In the last decade, the number of marriages increased from 459 624 in 1991 to 461 417 in 2000. The crude marriage rate of the last decade has decreased from 8.03 ‰ in 1991 to 6.84 ‰ in 2000 showing a decreasing trend with some fluctuations.

In the last decade, the number of divorces increased from 27 167 in 1991 to 34 862 in 2000. The crude divorce rate of the last decade has increased from 0.48 ‰ in 1991 to 0.53 ‰ in 2000 showing an increasing trend with some fluctuations.

Fertility

Fertility increased significantly from around 5.5 children to 7.0 children during the period 1923-1950. During the 1950s, fertility began to decline and it did not reverse. From 1970 to 1990, there was a very rapid national decline from about 5.6 to 2.65 with a decrease of 53 %. The level of total fertility was 2.53 children in 2000 according to the 2000 Population Census. Recently, the fertility level has been slightly decreasing. Demographic estimations show that the total fertility rate will be 2.46 in 2002. The number of live births was estimated at 1 482 000 and the mean age of childbearing is 27.8 in 2002.

Mortality

The infant mortality rate declined continuously, except for a temporary setback during the Second War. During the years from 1950, when infant mortality was about 250 deaths per thousand births, it decreased to 43 deaths per thousand births in 2000. The infant mortality rate was around 39.4 per thousand births in 2002 based on population estimates. The rate of improvement was especially rapid during the 1980s, which is generally credited to lower fertility, improved living conditions and health services, education and better understanding among mothers and special immunisation campaigns. These improvements in infant and early childhood survival have made a large contribution to raising the general expectations of life at birth, which stood at 70.9 years for women and 66.2 years for men in 2002.

Migration

For much of the second half of the 20th century Turkey was an emigration country, with Germany and other western European countries being the main countries of destination. From around 1980, however, immigration and transit migration became significant phenomena and concerns about illegal migration and the inflow of refugees increased. UNHCR estimates indicate that about 2 million refugees entered Turkey during the 1980s and 1990s. The main countries of origin have been Iran, Iraq and Bulgaria. According to the International Organisation for Migration, substantial numbers of transit migrants arrived from African and Asian countries during the 1990s. Thus, there is interest in various types of international migration: return migration and out-migration of Turks, including the loss of qualified people, and immigration and emigration of foreigners, including transit and illegal migration.

The main data sources for measuring population stocks are censuses and residence and work permit registrations. Flow data on international migration is lacking and there is a lack of data on emigration. The collection of emigration data is mainly based only on the data of Turkish citizens living abroad collected by the Ministry of Labour and Social Security.

Stocks of foreign population

The main data sources for measuring stocks of foreign population are censuses and residence permit registration. The number of foreign nationals was 245 600 with a percentage of 0.43 of the total population based on the result of the 1990 Population Census. This figure is numerated as 267 581 which represents 0.39 % of the total population in 2000.

Demographic projections

The national population projections are made by the cohort-component method. The methodology is implemented by a program computer (IBM-PC compatible) named FIVFIV that is an abbreviation of “five by five” year projections.

The sub-national population estimates are made by the apportionment method. This is a mathematical technique that distributes the increase in the national population after the last census among component areas (e.g. provinces or cities) of the country. It relies on the rate of increase.

The latest available population projections are based on the 2000 Population Census. The total population projection is broken down into sex and single years of age (up to 75+), and the horizon is the year 2040. The total fertility rate is expected to decrease from 2.46 in 2002 to 2.1 in the year 2015 and then remain constant. As far as mortality is concerned, a future decline is foreseen, generating a life expectancy at birth for men and women of 70.9 and 76.0 years respectively in 2040. The net-immigration is assumed to be 100 000 between the periods 1990-2005. After this the assumption is a slowly decreasing volume up to 2020. According to these assumptions, the population of Turkey will continue to grow from 69.6 million in 2002 to 99.1 million in 2040. The proportion of elderly will grow too. The new projections show that the proportion of people at age 65 and over will increase from 5.5 % in 2002 to 12.6 % in 2040 and the proportion of children (under 15) will decrease from 29.6 % to 21.2 %. The active population (15-64 years of age) will increase from 64.9 % in 2002 to 66.2 % in 2040.

Download the country tables here (archived, in zip format). Each national report includes the following tables (if available):

Table 1: Population by sex and age

Table 2: Births, deaths and legal abortions

Table 3: Sum, by five-year age group, of age-specific fertility rates (age in completed years), total fertility rate and mean age of women at childbirth

Table 4: Sum, by five-year age group, of female first marriage rates (age in completed years), total female first marriage rate and mean age at female first marriage. Total divorce rate

Table 5: Live births by order

Table 6: International migration

Table 7: Population of foreign citizenship

Table 8: Population change, natural increase and net migration

Table 9: Longitudinal data on fertility and female first marriage

Table 10: Life expectancy at certain ages